- A dozen berths in the 16-car playoff field have been secured via a victory. That leaves at least nine drivers vying for four available playoff positions via points.
- This Sunday there’s the two-mile Michigan track (pictured above) that requires fuel mileage strategy due to the long green-flag runs it produces.
- Bubba Wallace, Michael McDowell, Ty Gibbs, A.J. Allmendinger, Daniel Suarez, and Chase Elliott are among those in contention for the last remaining playoff slots.
Four positions in the NASCAR Cup Series playoff field remain up for grabs with as many races remaining in the regular season, and who snares one of the coveted berths could be like spinning a roulette wheel.
A dozen berths in the 16-car playoff field have been secured via a victory. That leaves at least nine drivers vying for four available playoff positions via points.
Also, there are at least 10 drivers below the cutline capable of winning one of the four remaining regular season races, and with the tracks involved in the scenario, a surprise winner isn’t beyond the realm of possibility.
This Sunday there’s the two-mile Michigan track that requires fuel mileage strategy due to the long green-flag runs it produces.
Then there are two road courses: the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix course and Watkins Glen. Daytona’s 2.5-mile superspeedway wraps up the regular season with a race that’s always unpredictable.
Kevin Harvick currently possesses the coveted position of being the highest driver in the regular season points without a victory. He’s sixth in the standings, 164 points above the cutline, heading into Sunday’s Firekeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway where he’s the defending champion. His position seems secure.
Brad Keselowski, who appeared headed for his first victory since 2021 before a pit road miscue at Richmond relegated him to a sixth-place finish, is 133 points above the cutline.
If he doesn’t experience any major issues and there are no new winners, he would make the playoffs. Coupled with Chris Buescher’s Richmond victory, that would place both RFK Racing cars in the playoffs.
However, the final two playoff positions remain a tossup. This is how they shape up in the point department.
Bubba Wallace enters Michigan 36 points above the cutline. Wallace finished second in last year’s race after starting from the pole. The 23XI Racing driver also performs well at Indianapolis and Daytona.
In the series first two years on the Indy road course, Wallace has a 9.0 average finish. His average finish at Daytona is 13.0 where he’s also been the runner-up on three occasions.
Watkins Glen could punch a hole in the Toyota team’s playoff balloon if it has the pit road execution woes that have plagued it throughout the season. Wallace’s average finish at the New York road course is 27.8.
Michael McDowell sits 16th in the driver standings, the cutoff position for the playoffs. Of the four tracks, Daytona is the only one where McDowell has visited victory lane.
Of the four tracks, Michigan has been McDowell’s worst, where he has a 30.4 average finish. His best finish at the two-mile track came in 2021 when he placed 20th. His average finish at Indy is 19.0, 25.8 at Watkins Glen, and 20.6 at Daytona.
His best finish at Watkins Glen came last year when he placed sixth. McDowell says he’s focusing solely on what he can control.
Ty Gibbs could make the playoffs in his rookie season. He is just 18 points below the cutline and has experience on all four tracks. While substituting last year for the injured Kurt Busch, he finished 10th, 17th, and 26th at Michigan, Indy, and Watkins Glen, respectively. His average finish at Daytona is 19th and he placed 13th in last year’s regular season finale.
A.J. Allmendinger, who is 22 points below the cutline, is a victory favorite at Indy and Watkins Glen. A road racing aficionado, Allmendinger’s first Cup victory came at Watkins Glen in 2014, and he won the inaugural Cup road course race at Indy in 2021.
His average finish at Indy is 4.0 and 9.2 at Watkins Glen. If he doesn’t win either of those events, Michigan and Daytona don’t appear to be good places for Allmendinger to gain points. His average finish at Michigan is 21.2 and 19.7 at Daytona.
Daniel Suarez’s dismal July has dropped him 34 points below the cutline. After the Atlanta race in early July, Suarez and McDowell were tied in points, occupying 15th and 16th in the standings.
Suarez’s 16th-place finish at New Hampshire dropped him to one point below the cutline, but the next two races were disastrous for the Trackhouse Racing driver.
A crash after only 37 laps at Pocono left him with a last-place finish in the 36-car field. At Richmond, he finished 33rd, four laps off the pace. The only track of the four where Suarez has an average finish better than 20th is Watkins Glen (12.0).
Chase Elliott has known since returning from the broken leg he suffered early in the season and a one-race suspension that he needed a victory. Many point to Watkins Glen as his best chance for a win.
He owns two victories at the winding road course and hasn’t finished lower than fourth since 2017 when he placed 13th. His average finish at Watkins Glen is 5.7. Even though he has never won at Michigan or Indy, his average finishes at those tracks also show a win is a possibility. His average finish at Michigan is 8.0 and 10.0 at Indy.
With the points Elliott has gained through the summer months, there is an outside chance he could point his way into the playoffs. When he returned from the one-race suspension in June at Sonoma, Elliott was 27th in the standings, 98 points below the cutline. He’s now 40 points below the cutline in 20th.
Alex Bowman is in a must-win situation if he expects to make the playoffs. After recovering from a fractured vertebra in his back, Bowman has dropped in the standings.
When he returned to racing at Charlotte in May, he was 17th in the points, five below the cutline. He is now 21st in the standings, 42 points below the cutline. Of the four tracks remaining in the regular season, the only one where Bowman has an average finish better than 21st is Daytona (16.8).
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