This July 4th Weekend Is Expected to Break Travel Records

• The national average gas price is about a dollar below 2022 levels for this time of year, with the current average sitting between $3.50 and $3.60 a gallon.
• Airline passengers are paying between 40% and 50% more for flights than they did this time in 2022, AAA notes, but this weekend is still expected to see 11.2% more air travelers than 2022.
• AAA expects 50.7 million Americans to travel 50 miles or more this Independence Day weekend, with 43.2 million expected to drive, representing a 4% increase over 2019 and a 2.4% increase over 2022.

With gasoline prices trending about a dollar below last year’s levels for this time of year, we knew we would see a lot of travelers on the roads this year.

But this upcoming Independence Day weekend could actually see a record number of travelers, AAA projects, beating a previous record set in 2019.

The organization revealed this week that it expects 50.7 million Americans to travel 50 miles or more this weekend, with 43.2 million opting to drive. This would represent not only a 2.4% increase over 2022—perhaps logical given that the national gasoline price average last year was $4.80 a gallon—but also a 4% increase in travel over 2019.

But gas prices, which have been trending between $3.50 and $3.60 a gallon nationally over the past few weeks, are only one part of the equation. AAA also expects air travel to set its own record with 4.17 million projected to fly to their destinations this weekend. This would represent an 11.2% increase over 2022, and a 6.6% increase over 2019, which was not only before the pandemic, but also before the dramatic levels of inflation we’re seeing in all retail sectors at the moment.

“We’ve never projected travel numbers this high for Independence Day weekend,” said Paula Twidale, Senior Vice President of AAA Travel. “What this tells us is that despite inventory being limited and some prices 50% higher, consumers are not cutting back on travel this summer. Many of them heeded our advice and booked early, another sign of strong travel demand.”

The air travel part of the weekend is perhaps the most surprising. AAA points out that passengers are actually paying 40% to 50% more for flights than they did a year ago. If any factors could help offset this depressing trend, it’s the fact that there are a lot more rental cars available this year, as rental companies aren’t scrambling to buy up more vehicles after selling off hundreds of thousands of them in the early months of the pandemic.

This will make renting a car a little cheaper this year, at least domestically. But if you’re flying overseas for the weekend (or accidentally get on the wrong flight and end up in Madagascar instead of Minneapolis), renting a car could be tough because demand for rental cars has risen 80% internationally, AAA notes.

If you do plan to drive, the worst time to hit the road would be between 4 pm and 6 PM today, June 29. That’s been true for quite some time as far as weekends go. And Friday, June 30, will be an absolute disaster pretty much all day long.

Likewise, Tuesday, July 4, is going to see some significant traffic in the afternoon, as will July 5. Getting on the road as early as possible on these days will help, AAA advises, though with record travel expected on the road and in the air we’re perhaps talking about degrees of awfulness here when it come to getting anywhere, especially today and tomorrow.

If you’ve decided to try beating the traffic and airport lines by neither driving nor flying, we have some potentially bad news: AAA expects 3.36 million people to travel by train, bus, or cruise during the weekend, which would represent a 24% increase over last year, certainly setting a pandemic-era record.

Hey, flying cars can’t get here soon enough—and Stellantis, among others, is working on them.

But in the meantime, we’ll take all the lower gas prices we can get.

If you’re traveling at all this July 4th weekend, do you plan to drive or to fly, and has inflation affected your travel plans? Let us know in the comments below.