Strict EPA Rules for 2027–2032 Vehicles Announced, Garnering a Range of Reactions

• The EPA regulates and lowers the quantity of emissions that can spew from the transportation network—in effect, raising fuel-economy requirements—and the next stage will be announced Wednesday, according to insiders.
• The new rules will affect model year 2027 through 2032 vehicles and do not ban internal-combustion engines or force EV purchases.
• Similar fuel-economy regulations from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) are also expected this month.

UPDATE, 4/13/2023: The EPA’s new tailpipe emission limits are out—the tougher standards were announced on Wednesday, April 13—and everyone agrees they would do a lot to reduce the amount of these emissions in our air. That’s because the rules would mean that perhaps 67 percent of all new light-duty vehicles sold in the U.S. – i.e., passenger cars, trucks and SUVs—would be all-electric by the 2032 model year. The EPA said this would reduce the average greenhouse gas emissions by 56 percent compared to the 2026 model year standards. The EPA also issued more stringent heavy-duty vehicle emission standards and said that rule would reduce greenhouse-gas emissions from those trucks and vans by 44 percent compared to 2026 levels.

Let’s get back to the two-thirds market share in nine years thing. Last year, EVs made up just under 6 percent of the market in the U.S. That’s up from 3.5 percent in 2021, and we can all see how the EV market has been exploding in recent years. Still, much bigger changes have to happen soon for us to hit the EPA’s target.

The news worth spotlighting is that it is “technically and economically” feasible to hit that target, according to at least some EV researchers. The environmental group Climate Nexus, for example, points to a UC-Berkeley study that found all new cars and trucks sold in the U.S. could be powered by electricity by 2035, just three years after the two-thirds deadline. But being technically feasible and realistic are not the same thing. Executive analyst Karl Brauer of iSeeCars commented that to have EV sales make up 67 percent of the U.S. market that fast would “require an unrealistic level of investment in everything from vehicle production to infrastructure support.” Brauer also pointed out that the Biden Administration’s implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act has actually reduced the number of EVs that qualify for tax credits. Still, with Bloomberg reporting that the bill could save $1.6 trillion in health care and fuel costs, among other benefits could encourage the finding of some money to kick things into high gear.

Cleaner air and more electric vehicles are the goals of a move expected next week when the Biden Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reportedly will announce what insiders are already calling the toughest-ever emissions rules for new cars and light trucks. The Associated Press reported on the planned announcement, having talked to people familiar with details of the proposal and who asked not to be named because it hasn’t yet been made public.

This Is Not a Gas-Engine Ban

What the new rules won’t do is ban new internal-combustion-engine vehicles outright or force people to buy electric vehicles. Instead, they’re the next logical step in the U.S. government’s overall push to clean up our transportation system. President Biden’s official target is for half of all new vehicles sold in the U.S. by 2030 to be zero-emission vehicles, which for the government means all-electric, plug-in-hybrid, or fuel-cell vehicles.

The stricter rules will affect model year 2027–2032 vehicles and deal with carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and other greenhouse gas emissions. According to the Los Angeles Times, automakers have been pushing behind the scenes to delay implementation of the new emission limits for “a few years,” but we won’t learn more until the proposed rules are released this week.

The EPA’s Not Talking (Yet)

The EPA sets emissions standards for new vehicles sold in the U.S. in batches. For example, emissions rules for 2021–2026 model year vehicles were finalized in the spring of 2020. Those rules ended up being less strict than initially proposed. The original proposed rule would have effectively required an industry fleet-wide average of 54.5 mpg by the 2025 model year, but that was amended first to 46.7 mpg and then to 40.4 mpg in the final rule.

The last time the EPA issued a press statement about new light-duty-vehicle emission standards for the 2027–2032 model years, it said that the final MY 2026 rules “set the light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG) program on track to provide a strong launch point for the Agency’s next phase of standards for MY 2027 and beyond.” Those new rules, the ones now expected next week, “will speed the transition of the light-duty vehicle fleet toward a zero-emissions future consistent with President Biden’s [plans],” the EPA said in December 2021. The EPA declined to issue any official statements regarding the new rules, telling the LA Times that the rules are still under interagency review.

The new standards are set to be announced Wednesday. The EPA is also expected to update emissions rules for heavy-duty trucks and power plants this month. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is also expected to announce its new fuel-economy standards in April.

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