- After contemplating the viability of California’s ZEV goals earlier this year, the Golden State is already proving itself right, as sales data shows one in four new cars sold is electrified.
- Some counties like those near San Francisco are achieving an even higher rate of 40% of new car sales being battery-electric, plug-in-hybrid, or fuel-cell electric.
- In order to keep this up, academics and scientists say that lowering vehicle and electricity costs as well as continuing to subsidize EV ownership for specific populations will be essential.
There is no denying that California is ahead of the curve on electric-vehicle adoption. Earlier this year, we contemplated California’s zero-emission vehicle progress and concluded that a full-stop sale of new internal-combustion cars by 2035 was well within reach.
And the state of California is proving its point this week, as sales data from the first half of 2023 shows a 24.3% take-rate for ZEVs, which California currently defines as battery electric, certain fuel-cell electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrids with at least 50 miles of all-electric range. That’s a rate of one in every four new cars sold being ZEVs (even though the plug-in hybrids also have internal-combustion engines), with just second-quarter sales showing an even higher 25.4% ZEV sales share.
And some areas are doing even better, with Alameda, San Francisco, and Santa Clara counties posting a 40% ZEV sales share in the second quarter of the year. Overall, ZEV sales numbers are up to 223,298 units just this year, though California’s overall light-duty vehicle count in 2022 was over 28 million units.
The first half of the year also marks a new crossroads for California, as Tesla has become the top-selling brand in California, edging out Toyota with a 14.6% market share. Similarly, the Tesla Model Y was the best-selling vehicle at large in California, beating out the previously best-selling Toyota Camry and Toyota RAV4. Additionally, the Chevy Bolt EV and EUV made up 8% of battery-electric vehicle sales, in a win for small, affordable EVs.
Other notable figures from the second quarter include Los Angeles County’s new ZEV registration rate, coming in at nearly 63,000 new ZEVs registered between April, May, and June. Orange County boasted over 28,000 new ZEVs registered as well, cementing Southern California as a close second in ZEV adoption to its Bay Area neighbors.
Compared to 2021, California ZEV sales data visualized by the Union of Concerned Scientists show a drastic jump from 2021 to 2023, accounting for a rise of over 10% in two years. It’s likely the COVID-19 pandemic has much to do with the slight plateau in EV sales from 2019 through 2020, though a steep climb has been established since 2022.
If California is truly on the way to all-EV sales by 2035, what needs to happen next? Well, the Union for Concerned Scientists outlines a few key actions in its analysis of California’s EV trends. Specifically, the group calls for automakers to adopt or develop a single charging standard, as seamless and widely available charging is public ally number one.
Additionally, diversifying the EV market with lower-cost vehicles as well as startups challenging legacy automakers will make for a less expensive, better developed, and more level playing field, the group says. And an academic analysis of California’s ZEV goal progress shows similar needs, according to Dr. Gil Tal, Director of The Plug-in Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Research Center at the University of California, Davis.
In a push to 100% EV sales, Tal says low-income populations and other marginalized groups have the potential to be left behind, meaning a combination of government regulations and market factors need to push automakers to create cheap-to-buy, cheaper-to-run vehicles. And a continually tailored set of government incentives will be crucial as well, Tal says.
“We will need some incentives for the long run because of environmental justice issues, as some communities will need more help, particularly if they’re rural or low income,” Tal tells Autoweek. “Because when we push to 100%, we are slowly going to segments that have more barriers, right?”
Tal also focuses on the cheap-to-own part of the EV equation, as he believes that providing cheaper electricity and subsidizing home EV charger installation will be more effective in the long run.
While genuine challenges still exist for California and EV adoption as a whole, the Golden State is a telling example for fellow ZEV-compliant states. The sheer population of California, as well as regional concentrations of wealth, are significant factors in this energy shift, but such data re-affirms that electrified state, federal, and manufacturer goals are attainable under the right circumstances.
Do you live in a state without EV incentives and own an EV? If so, what made you choose to buy an EV? Please share your thoughts below.
Associate Editor
A New York transplant hailing from the Pacific Northwest, Emmet White has a passion for anything that goes: cars, bicycles, planes, and motorcycles. After learning to ride at 17, Emmet worked in the motorcycle industry before joining Autoweek in 2022. The woes of alternate side parking have kept his fleet moderate, with a 2014 Volkswagen Jetta GLI and a 2003 Honda Nighthawk 750 street parked in his South Brooklyn community.
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